UPDATE 17/02/2021: As we suspected, hoped for, and hinted at during our original post below, all indications are that the various stakeholders are ‘working things out’. This morning Google and Nine Entertainment Co agreed on commercial terms for news content. This follows a recent deal with Seven West Media and rumours of an imminent deal with ABC and Guardian Australia. Surprise, surprise, it’s looking like Google in Australia is not going anywhere! While we would have worked things out no matter what happened, we believe that’s a good thing for all involved (except Microsoft)!

We all know that traditional media has struggled in recent years. People just don’t buy newspapers like they used to. Furthermore, advertisers are far less willing to invest huge sums of money on mass media advertising which is largely untargeted, very difficult to measure, and just doesn’t deliver the results that many SME’s now require.

Google makes huge amounts of money in Australia (in excess of $4 billion in 2019. Why? Because well run Google Ads campaigns can deliver outstanding results (particularly with proper campaign management and optimisation). Australian businesses choose to invest in Google Ads because it WORKS. We firmly believe that every business that operates in Australia should pay its fair share of tax, but that’s another conversation for another day.

The Australian Government has essentially observed that newspapers are losing money and that the tech giants are making money, and is essentially proposing that they ‘rob Peter to pay Paul’. What could possibly go wrong?

While having a strong media is vital for Australia, I personally disagree with what is being proposed, and believe this is not the best way forward. I mean, where do you draw the line? Should we tax electricity generation to fund candle manufacturers? Should an additional tax be placed on your NBN connection to fund snail mail? Should we tax solar panels and give money back to coal fired power plants (as their business model eventually becomes unprofitable)? Should additional taxes be levied on Appliances Online and transferred to Harvey Norman? In what world is that fair, and where would it stop?

Will Google really shut down in Australia?

It’s a big threat that Google has made. While it’s not impossible, I would personally be surprised if Google were to follow through and completely shut down in Australia. There is too much money being made, Google has significant resources in Australia, and it would essentially be giving away the ~95% market share that Google has in Australia. We don’t think Google really wants to do that.

What would happen to Google Ads and business advertisers if Google were to shut down in Australia?

While we think it’s unlikely, let’s look at the worst case scenario. If Google were to do the unthinkable and make Google search unavailable in Australia, people are still going to need to go somewhere to search! That would likely end up being Microsoft Bing and Duck Duck Go. These searches engines currently have a tiny, tiny fraction of the market. But if Google were to do the unthinkable, they’d essentially go from ~1-2% marketshare to 100% market share overnight. So in that worst case scenario, search would not die We’d just need to transition all our client’s advertising across to these platforms. It would be a massive undertaking, but certainly doable.

Google’s search and advertising technology is WAY ahead of anything from the competition, so we certainly hope it doesn’t happen. But if it does, it would not be the end of the world. Yes, there would be a couple of months of pain during the transition process, but ultimately Aussies would still need to search somewhere. We’d make the transition across and continue to make sure we get you found, and use our signature systems and technology to maximise campaign results and ROI regardless of platform.

What’s the bottom of line?

For now, don’t lose sleep over it. Know that if the unthinkable happens, we’ve got your back and it wouldn’t be the end of the world. We’d simply transition across to the new leading search advertising platform/s.